OmniDivitia Wealth Management, Inc. - ODWM Blog , MarketsOmniDivitia Wealth Management, Inc. - ODWM Blog , Marketshttps://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/marketsSun, 12 Apr 2026 15:53:47 -0700http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[The Soft Stuff Matters]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/the-soft-stuff-matters A thought on your portfolio's "total return."  (If you were told there would be no math today, I apologize in advance.) ]]>

The Magnified Impact of Investor Sentiment

A thought on your portfolio's "total return."  (If you were told there would be no math today, I apologize in advance.) 


Total Return has two parts to it:  appreciation & income.  If  you view owning a stock like you are an owner of a company, you want it to be profitable and have solid cash flow.  That perspective makes it easier to focus on the yield generated in your portfolio (dividends and interest).  However, as an investment, you also consider appreciation, which can be much more speculative, or at least fickle in nature.  


Think of something as simple as the P/E ratio, which is just another way of saying how much you're willing to pay for an investment for every dollar of a company's earnings  It's one representation of investor sentiment.  Why is this important?  Because uncertainty impacts investor sentiment in addition to the potential impact on corporate earnings.


Consider the two investors below.  Let's assume that the S&P 500 is around 6100, and both use research that shows the estimated earnings for the S&P 500 will be $280 over the next 12 months ("forward earnings").  This puts the forward P/E at roughly 21.8.

Photo by Icons8Team on Unsplash

Ryan wants to manage his portfolio risk.

Ryan is 30 years old, is a high earner, and has some additional cash that he would like to invest.  However, he is also concerned that the market is going to come down significantly for a number of reasons, so he doesn't want to invest right now.  Instead, he guesses that the forecasted earnings for the S&P will only reach $260, not $280.  Not only that, but Ryan isn't willing to pay the same amount for those earnings.  He will only invest if the forward P/E ratio reaches 20.  So because of his conservative nature, he doesn't want to invest more in stocks until the market comes down to 5200.  So even earnings estimates go down by about 7%, Ryan needs to see a drop of 14.75% before he feels comfortable and confident that he can get a reasonable return.

Photo by Austin Distel on Unsplash

Austin wants to be more aggressive.

Austin is also 30 years old, is a high earner, and has some additional cash that he would like to invest.  He has some concerns about the current market, but is more optimistic than Ryan.  While he also thinks that forecasted earnings will only be $260, he is still willing to pay $21.80 for every dollar in earnings (P/E ratio of 21.8), so he plans on investing more if the market pulls back to 5668 from 6100 (a decline of 7.08%).

Are you more like Ryan or Austin?

There is no "right" answer.  Math can tell you what you may "need" to do given certain conditions, but are those conditions actually right for you?  This is why the "soft stuff" matters; it helps you understand your investing style when the market gets tough - because it will.  In a world where we talk about love languages & attachment styles, it is just as important to understand what works for you and how you want to move forward - financially speaking, of course.  


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]]>Tue, 25 Mar 2025 17:38:24 -0500<![CDATA[Crazy Ivan!]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/crazy-ivan

Data Signals Potential Slowing Growth

In a post dated 4/5/24 titled "The Stubborn Soft Landing", I wrote the following: "A soft landing is - unofficially - when monetary policy makers both slow the pace of economic growth and reduce inflation without causing a recession.  So far, that appears to be the most likely scenario.  I think even a mild recession, or a "soft-ish" landing, could be understandable at this point.  One factor I have been monitoring has been the unemployment rate, which is beginning to rise slightly despite being near historic lows."  Since then, unemployment has risen from 3.8% to hover between 4.0-4.3% range for several months.  Monetary policy had appeared to do its job for a soft landing.  However, more recent fiscal policy has caused a distinct change of direction.  


Many of you may have heard me previously describe the US economy like a submarine; it's massive, has tremendous momentum, and can change directions, but doesn't turn on a dime.  Likewise, we have received signals, like a sonar ping, that help tell a story.  These tariffs, however, seem to have caused the economy & markets to be more like a "Crazy Ivan" (a hard turn made by a submarine to check its blind spot and potentially gain a tactical advantage, made famous by The Hunt for Red October by Tom Clancy).



Ping #1 = The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve's outlook for 2025 according to the December 2024 Summary of Economic Projections called for slightly higher inflation, rising unemployment, slower GDP, and 1-2 possible rate cuts in order to support the economy.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta also created an estimate of GDP for 1Q25 through an analysis of current data.  The GDPNow estimate showed a contraction from 2.9% on January 31 to (1.5%) this week, due to reports reflecting softer consumer spending, lower consumer sentiment, & fewer capital expenditures than expected.  There is also a concern about companies front-loading their imported goods before the tariffs take effect in April in order to take advantage of lower prices.


Ping #2 = Wall Street Revisions

Wall Street firms are also beginning to lower their year-end targets for the S&P 500.  Within the last few days, RBC changed from 6600 to 6200 (-6%); Goldman Sachs changed from 6500 to 6200 (-4.6%); & Yardeni Research changed from 7000 to 6400 (-8.6%).  At the start of the year, firms were calling for double-digit market growth.  Just these revisions changed from an average of almost 14% down to about 6.5%.  However, they also called for a possible contraction in 1H25, although the reasons for it varied.  The catalyst for the contraction has been the tariffs/trade war, which was not necessarily expected.    When factoring in the revised targets, after a 10% correction, the math shows that these firms are calling for an average recovery of 18.4% in the second half of 2025.  It sounds that they believe the rebound would likely be sparked by the resolution of the trade war, but a clear catalyst to that sort of growth in 2H25 is undetermined at this time.

Ping #3 = Investor Sentiment

Your portfolio's total return has two components:  appreciation/depreciation & income.  Less confidence in the stock market usually leads to an increased focus on generating portfolio income (dividends & interest).  However, lower investor sentiment also could lead to contraction in the Price-to-Earnings ratio.  The P/E ratio basically shows how much an investor is willing to pay for an investment for every dollar in earnings that investment generates.  Given the above points, it would be logical to think that earnings would be negatively impacted, so investors wouldn't be willing to value the investment the same as they did before.  The greater the uncertainty, the more an investor would want to be compensated - which usually means a lower purchase price (i.e., market depreciation).


So, if you have more uncertainty regarding the stock market than you did a month ago, you might want to be compensated for taking on additional risk by investing more at lower prices, depending on your personal goals, circumstances & risk tolerance.   

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey for the week ending 3/12/2025.




Conclusion

There is a lot of uncertainty presented in today's markets.  With the right plan in place, we can work together to help guide you through these times with a sound strategy that is tailored for you.  If you want help navigating all of the noise, click the button below to schedule a time to speak.

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]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 14:24:09 -0500<![CDATA[Are We In a "Melt-Up?"]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/are-we-in-a-melt-upA closer look into a quietly emerging risk in the stock market]]>

Understanding a Melt-Up in the Market and Its Potential Effects in 4Q24

As we enter the final quarter of 2024, investors and analysts are closely watching market movements, particularly the possibility of a "melt-up". This confusing term refers to a sharp, unexpected rise in asset prices driven primarily by investor sentiment, often unrelated to fundamental economic growth. In other words, a melt-up is characterized by euphoria in the market, with stock prices soaring as investors fear missing out (FOMO) on further gains, rather than any significant improvement in company performance or broader economic indicators.  While a melt-up can be exciting in the short term, it often signals heightened risk, and understanding its dynamics and potential consequences is critical for investors as they navigate 4Q24.

What Exactly is A "Melt-Up?"

A melt-up can happen when investors, worried about missing out on future profits, pile into stocks, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of rising prices. Unlike a **bull market**, which is supported by fundamental economic factors such as corporate earnings growth or macroeconomic expansion, a melt-up is often fueled by **speculative behavior** and psychological drivers.  Some common characteristics of a melt-up include:
    • Valuations exceeding fundamentals =  Stock prices surge far beyond what earnings or company fundamentals can justify.
    • FOMO-driven buying =  Investors rush into the market, driving prices higher due to fear of missing out on potential gains.
    • Volatility and market irrationality =  Rapid price movements can create instability and heighten risks of a correction.
In previous instances, such as the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s or the more recent surge in speculative assets during the 2020–2021 pandemic recovery, melt-ups have typically been followed by sharp corrections or even full-blown market crashes.  However, despite some of the above concerns, one positive thing to note is that forward stock market earnings continue to rise.  The question remains: do current estimates justify these prices?

Several factors appear to be creating conditions for a melt-up as we close out 2024, including monetary policy adjustments & global macroeconomic uncertainty.  The Federal Reserve has pivoted to a more dovish stance as its focus turns away from inflation toward the labor market.  This shift may have sparked optimism, pushing investors to assume that lower interest rates will keep supporting asset prices. Additionally, while inflation has cooled in some regions, economic growth remains uneven, especially in Europe and China. Investors, seeking safe havens for their capital, may turn to U.S. equities, driving prices upward.

Potential Effects of a Melt-Up in 4Q24

While the short-term effects of a melt-up might seem positive, with portfolios seeing substantial gains, the long-term risks and economic impacts are more complex.

  1. Market Volatility = As prices rise quickly, the risk of a sharp correction increases. History shows that melt-ups are often followed by downturns. For example, the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s led to a spectacular crash in 2000. If the market becomes overextended, any negative news—be it an earnings miss, geopolitical tension, or macroeconomic disappointment—could trigger a sell-off.
  2. Weakened Investor Confidence = If the market does correct after a melt-up, it could undermine investor confidence for a period of time, potentially leading to a prolonged bear market. Once investors realize that prices have far exceeded the fundamentals, many may exit the market, exacerbating the downturn.
  3. Potential for Sectoral Divergence = During a melt-up, certain sectors may benefit disproportionately. When the correction occurs, the most overinflated sectors may experience the steepest declines.
  4. Impact on Monetary Policy = If a melt-up occurs, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may face pressure to adjust monetary policy. On one hand, a melt-up could lead to concerns about **asset bubbles**, prompting tighter monetary conditions to curb speculative excesses. On the other hand, a sudden collapse in asset prices could push central banks to ease rates again to stabilize markets. This dynamic adds uncertainty to future monetary policy decisions.
  5. Wealth Effect and Consumer Spending = In the short term, a melt-up can fuel the **wealth effect**, where rising asset prices encourage consumers to spend more. However, this can lead to temporary surges in inflation and demand. When prices correct, the opposite could happen, with consumers pulling back on spending, leading to slower economic growth in early 2025.

How Investors Can Navigate a Potential Melt-Up

Given the uncertainty surrounding a melt-up, it’s important for investors to remain cautious:
1. Diversification: Allocating investments across different asset classes, regions, and sectors can help reduce exposure to an overvalued sector or asset class.
2. Focus on fundamentals: While speculative stocks may be tempting, focusing on companies with strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations can protect against downside risks.
3. Prepare for volatility: It’s crucial to brace for heightened volatility. This might mean adjusting asset allocations or hedging positions to mitigate potential losses in the event of a sharp market correction.

As we enter the final quarter of 2024, the possibility of a market melt-up is real. While the allure of quick profits may drive asset prices higher in the short term, investors should be mindful of the risks that come with euphoric markets. A disciplined, diversified approach, focusing on long-term fundamentals, will be essential for navigating this turbulent period.  To get a better idea of the risk your portfolio may be taking on, schedule a call today by clicking the button below.

Disclaimer:  
The content provided here is at least partially generated by artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only. While I strive to ensure accuracy, the information may not always reflect the most current developments or data. It's recommended to verify any critical information from reliable sources or consult with a professional expert when making decisions based on this content.
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]]>Thu, 10 Oct 2024 08:00:00 -0500<![CDATA[Ending with a Bang!]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/ending-with-a-bang

2023 was all about the "Magnificent Seven" stocks.  What does 2024 hold?

Markets in 4Q23 ended with basically an entire year's worth of returns in a decent year.  Large cap stocks were up over 26%, small caps were up almost 17%, and international developed markets were up nearly 19%.  Both fixed income and cash equivalents (as measured by the 90 day US T-Bill) were up more than 5%.  But let's delve into the details a little further.  Will we  have more of the same in 2024?

2023 Magnificent 7 stock charts

"Magnificent 7" Stocks Skew Market Returns

Last year was all about the "Magnificent 7 stocks" (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA) which are perceived to be best positioned to benefit the most from the A.I. trend.  The markets have become distorted due to the outsized, over-weighted performance of these companies. This chart is the S&P 500 along with the Magnificent 7 stocks. Note how the 26.29% return of the S&P 500 (the bottom line) is dwarfed by the other returns. For comparison, if we equally weighted all companies in the benchmark, the return would have been just under 12%.  These seven companies have represented 25-30% of the total stock market value, and had an average return of 108% in 2023.  This means that the remaining 493 stocks, representing 70-75% of the index value, provided basically NO return in 2023. 

Interest Rates are actually Returning to "Normal"

It is also important to remember where interest rates have been historically for context. This chart shows the Fed Funds Effective Rate going back to 1955. While there was a spike in the 1980s due to an energy crisis, it could be construed that we are presently in a normal range. Most of the last 20 years, we have had an exceptionally accommodative rate environment because of three "once in a lifetime" type of events: the tech bubble; the Great Financial Crisis; and COVID-19. The current environment is normal historically, but there is an entire generation of investors for which this is a shock.

Investors should also remember that any interest rate cuts would be due to a slowdown in economic activity (prompted by the lagging impact of interest rate increases), not just where headline inflation lands. We still have a long way to go. The chart also shows how many cutting cycles have been in or followed by a recession, which is one of the reasons why 1H24 could have a slowdown, whether defined as a "soft landing" or later officially defined as a recession.

Conclusion

Fear of missing out on the AI craze drove the equity markets in 2023, although several measures indicate that valuations may be too high at this point. Similarly, consumers continue to drive this economy, although household balance sheets have slightly deteriorated due to higher debt spending. Many experts believe that the first half of 2024 will be affected by both of these trends before resuming a more normal course of behavior.

Prudence will be necessary, and, as I have stated previously, having patience is hardest when it is needed the most. 2024 may have some noise to it, and bumps along the way, but I believe we will be even better as we navigate our way through.

If you have questions about how to navigate these risks, click the button below to discuss your situation more in depth.
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]]>Thu, 11 Jan 2024 19:11:24 -0600<![CDATA[All Things A.I.]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/All-Things-A.I.The first half of 2023 was one with strong market performance, as the S&P 500 returned 16.89%.  However, deeper analysis paints a picture tha ]]>

A.I. related companies seem to be driving this market.

The first half of 2023 was one with strong market performance, as the S&P 500 returned 16.89%.  However, deeper analysis paints a picture that isn't quite as rosy.  The S&P 500 is a market-capitalization weighted index.  When you look at the equal-weighted index, the return is only 5.97%.  The difference is due to the significant influence of some of the largest companies, particularly those related to artificial intelligence.  As of 6/30, seven mega-cap companies accounted for about 26% of the S&P 500 index, had an average return of 93% in 1H23, and a weighted return of 19.77%  This also means that the remaining 493 stocks (with a 74% weighting) actually had a loss of about 3.90%.  There are also some concerns about the sustainability of this market's rally.

Valuations Seem High

As of 6/30, the Wilshire 5000 stock index (intended to represent the entire US stock market), is 1.6 standard deviations above its long term trend.  This is a signal of being overvalued.  Also, even with earnings recovering slightly, markets seem to ignore not only the Fed's current actions, but also the likelihood that they will likely have to continue raising rates because inflation has been so stubborn, and becoming embedded in consumer prices, which has been a stated concern ("...long-term price stability.")

In other words, if the trendline in the previous chart (in red) was translated into a baseline (dotted line in this chart), the current market's deviation is similar to the "dot.com" bubble from 1999-2000, although not quite as large as it was before the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022.

A Turn in the Business Cycle?


The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators have been less than its Coincident Economic Indicators for the last three months.  In other words, based on the chart to the left, not only have survey results indicated more a more pessimistic outlook within 6-12 months from that particular survey date, but for the last three months they also have indicated that the near-future business cycle will be worse than the current situation.  With the first gap being in March 2023, this indicates a potential turn in the business cycle starting in 4Q23 or 1Q24.

Paying a Premium for More Risk?

As of 6/30, the earnings yield on the S&P 500 was about 5.22%.  The yield on the 3-month US Treasury bill was 5.46%.  This means that investors are literally paying 0.24% to take on the risk of the stock market (instead of receiving a benefit of 4.5-5.0%).  At some point, risk management and fundamental valuations will come back into focus, but as long as the market is increasing, many are content to simply ride the wave.  This could lead to some good opportunities when the market corrects, especially if it overshoots the mark trying to correct.


In the short term, "caveat emptor" (let the buyer beware).  To learn more about how our process could benefit your situation, click the button below.

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]]>Tue, 04 Jul 2023 16:07:13 -0500<![CDATA[Risky Business]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/risky-business

High valuations.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Inflation.  Interest rates rising.  The supply chain. A bear market.  A bull market.  What do all of these have in common?

They all can be causes of "risk".  Risk can mean many things: uncertainty, volatility, or loss, depending on one's perspective.  I might address the various types of risk investors face in the future (such as market risk, company/industry risk, currency risk, interest rate risk, etc.).  However, there are some universal rules for how to handle risk that I thought might help when you are uncertain.  You have 5 basic options/tactics (with examples).


  1. TRANSFER THE RISK = If you own a particular investment and no longer want the risk that it has, you can transfer that risk to someone else (i.e., sell the holding and let someone else deal with it). 
  2. ASSUME THE RISK = Company X's stock dropped by 20% recently, but you believe the price is too low and buy 100 shares.  You have assumed (retained) the risk in order to pursue a potentially greater reward (or incur a potentially greater loss). 
  3. REDUCE THE RISK = Until now, your only investment has been ABC company stock (your employer).  You decide to diversify your portfolio with other stocks/bonds/funds, but keep 50% of your original ABC investment. This way, while you still may rely on ABC for your compensation - as well as your health insurance, life insurance, and some wealth creation (through stock options, for example) -  your overall portfolio volatility may decrease, just case ABC underperforms since the other investments may not respond to market conditions in the same way ABC does. 
  4. AVOID THE RISK = You are evaluating holdings in a particular industry which has declining profitability due to economic factors.  You decide not to purchase any investments in this industry for the time being.
  5. SHARE THE RISK = Think of your insurance company.  If you are involved in a car accident, potential costs from damages are shared between you and the insurance company.  The risk isn't shared equally in this case, but it is shared.

In closing, remember the words of legendary investor, Benjamin Graham:  "The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns."

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]]>Thu, 24 Mar 2022 20:23:35 -0500<![CDATA[10 Rules for Investing]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/10-rules-for-investing10 Rules for Investing as guideposts for your journey]]>

Trust your Training in Times of Trouble...

When I entered the financial services industry in 1996, I just wanted to absorb as much information as possible.  One of the first pieces of information I came across was by Wall Street legend Bob Farrell, who was the Chief Market Analyst for Merrill Lynch.  Mr. Farrell worked for "Mother Merrill" from 1957-2002, and was one of the first to use "sentiment" analysis in his work.  Given the unusual times we find ourselves in, and the increasing market volatility, I thought it would be helpful to revisit Bob Farrell's "10 Rules for Investing", which have been shared throughout Wall Street firms for decades.  Enjoy!


1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.

2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.

3. There are no new eras - excesses are never permanent.

4. Exponentially rapid rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.

5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.

6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.

7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they are narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.

8. Bear markets have 3 stages - sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.

9. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.

10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.

If you are following our posts on LinkedIn or Facebook, you may see how some of these rules are currently playing out.  For a more personalized analysis, schedule a call to discuss your concerns by clicking the button below.

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]]>Mon, 14 Feb 2022 13:17:55 -0600<![CDATA[Thoughts on Valuations]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/thoughts-on-valuationsIs the market too high or too low? Should I be concerned, or ready to take advantage of opportunities?]]>

Numbers don't lie...but they also don't tell the whole story.

Recently I was reminded of the phrase, "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder."  That could apply to how the equity markets are valued as well.  Many think markets are overvalued; some say we're undervalued.  Which is right?  What do the numbers say?

Start with the Top Line & Bottom Line

Every business has a top line (sales), and a bottom line (earnings).  Two common ratio comparisons are based around these.

  • Price-to-Sales = How much would you pay for every dollar in revenues a business makes?  Let's temporarily remove profitability from the equation. If we took the market value of all publicly-traded US securities ("price"), and we compare it to GDP ("sales"), using the most recently published data, we would get a ratio of about 196%.  Several years ago, Warren Buffett was being interviewed, and discussed this methodology.  He stated that "...if the ratio approaches 200%...you are playing with fire." If we took the market value of all publicly-traded US securities ("price"), and we compare it to GDP ("sales"), using the most recently published data, we would get a ratio of about 196%.  Several years ago, Warren Buffett was being interviewed, and discussed this methodology.  He stated that "...if the ratio approaches 200%...you are playing with fire."
  • Price-to-Earnings = This is perhaps the most common metric investors are familiar with.  For comparison, consider using the Rule of 20 as a rule of thumb (20-inflation=P/E). With inflation at 6.8%, the Rule of 20 P/E would be 13.2.  However, with an earnings-per-share forward estimate of about $220, the current P/E ratio is closer to 21.1.

Both ratios are clearly elevated, but let's put them in context.  The markets are still recovering from an unprecedented crisis that caused a forced economic shutdown.  Companies adjusted by reducing expenses, such as payroll, and in some cases, reducing the amount of corporate real estate owned or leased because so many worked from home.  It makes sense that sales have recovered, and that earnings have done so to a greater extent (because of reduced expenses). Stock prices have not only increased due to these factors, but also due to added government support.  (The CARES Act from March 2020 added $2.3 trillion to the US economy (roughly 11% of GDP)).  But is it too much?

Potential Obstacles

  • The most notable issue today is inflation, which has been caused by both the supply chain delivery issues as well as the previously mentioned government support.  However, what seems to be ignored is the fact that wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation, causing negative real growth year-over-year.  In other words, even if you got a raise, your expenses went up as much and even a little more!
  • Unemployment (from the November 2021 report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics): "The unemployment rate fell...to 4.2% in November.  The number of unemployed persons fell...to 6.9 million.  Both measures are down considerably from their highs at the end of the the February-April 2020 recession.  However, they remain above their levels prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (3.5% and 5.7 million respectively, in February 2020).

Reasons to be Optimistic

It's not all doom and gloom - not by a longshot.  Resolving the supply chain would go a long way not only in helping to contain inflation, but also in allowing companies to keep hiring to fulfill consumer demand that has been surging for a year (which could also lead to greater consumer spending).  Until then, earnings estimates should continue to rise because of the reduced expenses I mentioned earlier.  Also, with the Federal Reserve signaling that they will raise rates and taper their support (i.e., stop putting additional money into the economy by buying bonds) sooner than initially anticipated, bonds will be less attractive since prices move inversely to rates. Risk management will be important, but opportunities may present themselves if there is some short-term volatility.


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]]>Wed, 15 Dec 2021 16:04:42 -0600<![CDATA[Don't Be Surprised]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/Dont-Be-Surprised

The reasons for the stock market's pullback the last couple of days aren't surprising. For reference, see my post in September titled "Known or Unknown". The magnitude of the moves is what has gotten everyone's attention, and understandably so. However, if we take a step back, much of this could just be a combination of 2 things: first, a sector rotation from growth oriented industries (tech, for example) to defensive industries with decent yields that have been ignored (such as consumer staples, telecom, utilities, etc.). Secondly, technical measures that have been triggered. Benchmark indices such as the S&P 500 have broken through their 200 day moving averages. The 200 day MA is seen as a support level. Once the price breaks through that level, a new floor is sought. I would not be surprised if we dropped another 4-5%. I also would not be surprised if the index slowly began to recover as some long-term investors buy the dips. My suggestions: let your personal situation drive you, not the markets; also, keep an eye on earnings season & the guidance going forward.

To discuss your situation further, contact me at 708-960-0520 or schedule a time to speak through the Appointments tab above.

]]>Thu, 11 Oct 2018 19:30:37 -0500