OmniDivitia Wealth Management, Inc. - ODWM Blog #economyOmniDivitia Wealth Management, Inc. - ODWM Blog #economyhttps://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/tag/economySun, 12 Apr 2026 16:00:16 -0700http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[Regime Change]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/regime-change1Q 2026 Review, and an introduction to our Active Regime Awareness framework]]>

The governing market traits "regime" changed in late 1Q26, showing more investor concern.


A market "regime" is defined by the governing set of traits and conditions that investors are subject to. You may have heard several terms previously that are types of regimes: bullish, bearish, risk-on, risk-off, etc. To better illustrate this concept, picture yourself driving on a long-distance trip.

  • How do you feel: alert or tired? Do you want to keep going according to your plans or stop for a while? This is like the investor, whose sentiment may differ depending on any number of factors.

  • How are the roads? Is the terrain straight and smooth, or are there curves, hills, &/orother obstacles ahead that may make you want to slow down? Do you want to look at an alternate route? This is like evaluating the equity markets: past conditions may not indicate how the conditions are ahead. Do you change your strategy or maintain the course?

  • How is the weather? Sunny with a clear forecast, or cloudy with a chance of gusting wind and thunderstorms later? This is like evaluating the economy. These are conditions that you have to deal with that you have absolutely no control over.

Market State: A Transition to "Risk Off?"

  • As of late March 2026, the market state has shifted from the bullish momentum seen at the start of the year toward a defensive, correction-oriented posture.

  • Geopolitical Dominance: The primary catalyst for recent price action is the escalating conflict with Iran. This has injected a high "risk premium" into equities and pushed the S&P 500 nearly 9% off its January highs ($7,002$), placing it on the doorstep of a formal 10% correction.

  • Sector Rotation: There is a pronounced "flight to quality."Investors have rotated out of high-growth technology and software valuations—which faced additional pressure from AI-disruption anxieties—and into Energy, Utilities, & Materials.

  • Volatility: The VIX has experienced a dramatic spike, briefly surging over 35 as markets price in the uncertainty of global energy supply chains and the potential for a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, once the battle for approving Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is resolved. (Note: Warsh has previously stated his beliefs in a smaller balance sheet for the Federal Reserve, which would mean selling their Treasury bonds and taking funds out of circulation, and then using interest rates to spur economic activity rather than liquidity. This may be difficult to do given where inflation stands today.)

The chart's green line shows the growth of the S&P 500 for 3Q25 & 4Q25. However, the red line shows how the market performed during a rolling two-quarter period, from the start of 4Q25 to the end of 1Q26. The market regime changed from a bullish to a bearish state, with both flat market & economic trends as well. 

Looking back over the last six months (October 2025 – March 2026), we observe a distinct "arc" in market performance.

 




4Q25 =Steady appreciation, fueled by AI capital expenditures and strong year-end earnings.

 

Early 1Q26 = All-Time Highs. The index peaked above 7,000; optimism regarding a "soft landing" was at its zenith.

 

Late 1Q26 = Persistent Weakness. Geopolitical escalation and oil price shocks (breaching $100/bbl) led to a ~2.8% decline in March alone. The trend has transitioned from momentum-driven growth to volatility-driven contraction, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back toward 4.48%, reflecting a total reversal of the sub-4% expectations held only months ago.

Economic Trend Divergence

Hard Data: Resilient but Cooling   

The divergence between "Hard Data" (actual economic output) and "Soft Data" (sentiment-based indicators) has widened significantly over the last half-year.Hard data reflects an economy that is slowing down to its "cruising speed" but remains fundamentally sound. 

  • GDP Growth: Real GDP expanded by roughly 2.0% to 2.2% over the trailing six months. This growth is anchored by robust business investment in AI infrastructure and steady, albeit moderating, consumer spending.
  • Labor Market: The data is "wobbling." While the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3% – 4.4%, job growth has averaged near zero over the past six months, signaling that the rapid hiring phase of 2024-2025 has concluded.
  • Manufacturing: This remains a weak spot, with the ISM Manufacturing Index showing a 9-month contraction trend due to tariff uncertainties and high borrowing costs.

    •  Soft Data: The Pessimism Gap   

    In contrast to the steady GDP numbers, "soft" sentiment data is flashing red.

    • Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan index fell to 53.3 in March, its lowest since late 2025. Consumers are feeling the "inflationary impulse" of rising energy costs, with year-ahead inflation expectations jumping from 3.4% to 3.8% in a single month.
    • Business Outlook: While AI-focused firms remain optimistic, broader small-business sentiment is weighed down by the elimination of expected Fed rate cuts, with markets now pricing in a potential "hawkish hold" or even a slight hike to combat energy-driven inflation.

    Conclusion

    The economy is currently in a state of "Stagflationary Anxiety." Stagflation is defined as a period of stagnant economic growth with high/rising unemployment and high inflation. While the hard data (GDP and Earnings) suggests a healthy foundation, the soft data (Consumer Confidence) and Market State (Volatility) reflect a fear that the geopolitical oil shock could unravel the progress made on inflation over the past two years.

     

    Given the strong performance of the stock market in recent years and concerns over valuations, it would be understandable to have some pullback. The degree of the drawdown is the question given the geopolitical and economic concerns mentioned above.

    To review your current strategy through the lens of our Active Regime Awareness framework, click the button below to schedule a consultation.
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    ]]>    Fri, 10 Apr 2026 19:12:23 -0500    <![CDATA[Fed Rate Cuts Start]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/fed-rate-cuts-start

    The FOMC Outlook Details Reflect Some of our Concerns

    Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve cut the target Fed Funds rate by 0.25%, to a range of 4.00-4.25%.   The clear concerns from the September 17th preliminary comments & press release were more focused on the labor market rather than inflation.  Chairman Powell stated "The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen."  This makes perfect sense, especially given much of the recent brouhaha over downside jobs revisions.  


    The Fed is walking a very fine line.  Remember that inflation hasn't been been under 2% since February 2021.  With the awkward rollout of the tariffs, their full impact is just starting to be felt.  At some point, the consumer's ability and willingness may break under the weight of a weakening labor market.  While cutting interest rates may support demand in the short term, if it weakens, companies may accelerate efforts to increase efficiency, especially through the growth of AI and the subsequent capital expenditures of supporting data centers.


    My quarterly commentary from 4Q24 stated "...the FOMC data for 2025 projects slowing GDP, higher inflation, rising unemployment, and potential Fed Funds cuts to support the economy.  However, several major banks/brokerage firms have placed targets on the S&P 500 reflecting high single-digit to low double-digit percentage growth. Given the gap in fundamental valuations and current levels, coupled with the above FOMC projections, it seems logical that both could occur, but a correction may be needed in the interim to provide more attractive entry points in the short term. "    I still feel the same way.  Valuations are exceptionally high, but there had been no catalyst to make them head lower.  The impact of the trade war may be the catalyst for a reversion to the long-term trend, and if so, could create an even more attractive opportunity.


    Aa a disciplined investor, I want to have a sense that what I'm paying for something is a fair price for the risk I'm taking.  If an investment has more risk, I want to be compensated through a lower purchase price, which gives me a better chance at a return that makes that risk worth taking.  Instead, this market has been what I would consider an "irrational" risk-on market.  In other words, people acknowledge that prices are probably too high in the short-term, but choose to chase returns anyway and ignore economic concerns and the long-term valuation comparisons.  This is a practical example of something I've said before and will say again:  CONTROL WHAT YOU CAN AND PLAN FOR WHAT YOU CAN'T.


    If you want to discuss more practical ways to implement risk management in your portfolio, whether you're seeking current income or aggressive, long-term growth, click the button below to schedule a consultation.


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    ]]>    Fri, 19 Sep 2025 12:48:07 -0500    <![CDATA[Navigating the Markets & Economy Through the PEST Lens]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/navigating-the-noise-with-a-pest 1. Political Escala ]]>

    A Thank You to Richard Bernstein

    I recently decided to break out my copy of "Navigate the Noise" by Richard Bernstein, a book he wrote in 2001.  The first thing that struck me was the full title, and how it seems so appropriate today.  The full title is: "Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype", which 


    For context, Richard Bernstein is the CEO & Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors.  He was formerly the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch, where I became familiar with his work, as he would often be heard on the daily market calls, providing insight and guidance for advisors.  What stands out in my memory is that there were some people in our office who were not his biggest fans. Perhaps it was because he wasn't always an equity market "cheerleader", as some are, or because he suggested caution in an approach rather than to "back the truck up and buy as much as you can." (That's another actual quote that I heard from a different analyst - WOW!).  However, I liked his style, and always appreciated the independent, well-thought out logic as well as how he articulated his opinion.  


    With that in mind, in this era of seemingly overvalued markets and an uncertain economy, I think it could be helpful to step back, take a breath, and evaluate what is going on with a well-known framework, the PEST Analysis.  PEST stands for "Political; Economic; Social; Technological".  (Some choose to use PESTLE, adding "Legal & Environmental" as additional factors to consider.

    1. Political

    • Escalating Tariff Tensions & Trade Policy Shockwaves

      The U.S. has imposed sweeping tariffs—the highest since the 1930s—averaging almost 20%, impacting imports from more than 60 countries and pressuring trade flows, inflation, and consumer costs (The Tax Foundation).

    • Temporary Relief via Trade Truce

      A fresh 90-day truce between the U.S. and China offers short-term calm, though significant diplomatic and trade hurdles remain unresolved (AP News).

    • Federal Reserve Policy Amid Uncertainty

      Amid persistent inflation and slowing growth, Kansas City Fed President Schmid supports holding rates steady around 4.25–4.50%, calling the policy “modestly restrictive” (Reuters). In contrast, economist Jeremy Siegel argues that a rate cut is “inevitable,” forecasting up to a 50-basis-point cut in September and further easing into 2026 (MarketWatch).

    2. Economic

    • Mixed Growth Signals
      The U.S. economy rebounded in Q2 2025 with annualized GDP growth of +3.0%, after a Q1 contraction of –0.5% (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gallagher).

    • Global Growth Outlook—Tempered but Steady
      The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.0% for 2025, buoyed by pre-tariff spending and easing effective U.S. tariffs. Still, downside risks remain high (Reuters). The OECD paints a bleaker picture, warning of the weakest global expansion since the pandemic, citing trade barriers and policy uncertainty as key drags (Financial Times).

    • Inflation Pressures Persist
      U.S. headline CPI held at 2.7% while core CPI rose to 3.1%—indicating stickier inflation driven in part by tariffs (New York Post, The Guardian). The re-emergence of stagflation—a troubling combo of slowed growth and high inflation—is increasingly discussed by economists (Financial Times).

    3. Social

    • Softening Labor Market & Job Data Shifts
      Job growth slowed markedly—July added just 73,000 jobs, the weakest performance since the COVID-19 downturn. Revisions also showed May and June estimates were overstated by 258,000 jobs collectively (The Times of India).

    • Shifting Investor Sentiment
      Markets are rapidly digesting inflation trends, Fed signals, and tariff impacts. Record highs in some indices reflect optimism, but stagflation concerns are sowing caution (Business Insider, The Times).

    • Skepticism in Real Estate Investments
      Ray Dalio calls real estate a risky bet in the current environment—pointing to its rate sensitivity, tax burden, and illiquidity—and recommends hedging via gold or Bitcoin instead (Business Insider).

    4. Technological

    • Market Preferences Favoring Tech & AI
      Technology and AI-related sectors continue to outperform, reflecting investors’ preference for scalable, less tariff-sensitive businesses (Quotient Wealth, Schroders).

    • AI as a Growth Engine
      AI and cloud services delivered strong earnings from major firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, reinforcing optimism about AI’s long-term profitability (Schroders).

    • Supply Chain Resilience & Reconfiguration
      Global supply chains are recalibrating amid layered crises—geopolitical fragmentation, pandemic remnants, and Russia-Ukraine fallout. While China remains deeply embedded upstream, importers are increasingly diversifying toward ASEAN partners (arXiv).


    Summary Table: PEST Snapshot

    PEST FactorKey Developments
    PoliticalTariff turbulence; Temporary U.S.–China truce; Diverging Fed outlook
    EconomicU.S. GDP rebounds; Inflation resilient; Global growth modest
    SocialLabor market cooling; Real estate skepticism; Market sentiment mixed
    TechnologicalTech/AI outperforming; Supply chain realignment in progress


    Concluding Thoughts

    The emerging economic narrative for mid-2025 is one of fragile resilience amid growing uncertainty. Markets are balancing optimism—rooted in tech gains and a potential Fed pivot—with geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and softening fundamentals. A rate cut could provide relief, but reliance on policy lightening is fraught amid stagflation fears.  From a PEST standpoint, navigating this period requires vigilance across domains: watch tariff developments, inflation and labor indicators, investor confidence shifts, and the adaptive power of tech and supply chains.


    For a more in depth opinion on what this may mean for your plan and portfolio, click the button below to schedule a call.

    Disclaimer: This content has been generated with AI assistance and is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered professional, legal, or financial advice. Please consult a qualified expert for specific guidance.

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    ]]>    Tue, 12 Aug 2025 13:50:10 -0500    <![CDATA[Is this the Speculation Era?]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/is-this-the-speculation-era

    The Buffett Indicator: A 25-Year Rollercoaster Ride for Market Valuations


    In recent years, there has been some concern about the stock market's seemingly high valuations by common fundamental measures, yet it still seems to climb higher.  Rather than debate right or wrong, I thought a deeper dive on a popular indicator could be worthwhile.  Years ago, Warren Buffett discussed some metrics he found valuable in an interview, and soon after the "Buffett Indicator" was born.

    A comprehensive analysis of the Buffett Indicator over the past quarter-century reveals a market that has navigated dot-com euphoria, weathered a devastating financial crisis, and surged through a pandemic-induced recession, pushing valuations to historic highs. The indicator, a favored metric of legendary investor Warren Buffett, provides a stark, big-picture view of whether the U.S. stock market is, in his words, "cheap" or "expensive" relative to the nation's economic output.1

    The Buffett Indicator is calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of all U.S. publicly traded stocks by the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).2A ratio of 100% is often considered a baseline for fair valuation, where the stock market's value aligns with the annual output of the entire economy.3 Levels significantly above this threshold suggest potential overvaluation, while those below may indicate that stocks are undervalued.

    Here is a 25-year chart of the Buffett Ratio, using the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index as a proxy for the total market capitalization and the U.S. Nominal GDP.

    The Buffett Ratio: 2000-2024

    &lt;br>

    YearWilshire 5000 (Year-End)U.S. Nominal GDP (Billions)Buffett Ratio (%)
    200014,751.64$10,284.80143.4%
    200111,447.80$10,621.80107.8%
    20028,793.30$10,977.5080.1%
    200311,333.30$11,510.7098.5%
    200412,485.40$12,274.90101.7%
    200512,963.70$13,093.7099.0%
    200614,603.90$13,855.90105.4%
    200714,849.50$14,477.60102.6%
    20088,996.90$14,718.6061.1%
    200911,211.50$14,418.7077.8%
    201013,111.40$14,964.4087.6%
    201113,061.30$15,517.9084.2%
    201214,792.80$16,155.3091.6%
    201319,706.03$16,768.10117.5%
    201420,812.80$17,427.60119.4%
    201520,587.30$18,120.70113.6%
    201621,796.60$18,624.50117.0%
    201726,273.40$19,390.60135.5%
    201824,795.10$20,580.20120.5%
    201932,948.41$21,433.20153.7%
    202039,081.44$20,953.00186.5%
    202149,279.30$23,000.00214.3%
    202240,323.50$25,462.80158.4%
    202349,019.80$26,949.60181.9%
    202459,833.50$29,200.00204.9%

    Note: 2024 GDP is a projection.

    Analysis of the 25-Year Trend

    The chart vividly illustrates the dramatic swings in market valuation over the last two and a half decades, punctuated by major economic events:

    The Dot-Com Bubble and Bust (2000-2002): The 21st century began at the peak of the dot-com mania, with the Buffett Indicator at a then-lofty 143.4%. The subsequent crash of technology stocks brought the ratio plummeting to a low of 80.1% by the end of 2002, signaling a period of significant undervaluation.

    The Calm Before the Storm (2003-2007): The market then entered a period of recovery and relative stability. The Buffett Indicator hovered around the 100% mark, suggesting a fairly valued market in the years leading up to the next major crisis.

    The Great Financial Crisis (2008): The collapse of the housing market and the ensuing global financial crisis sent the stock market into a freefall. The Buffett Indicator reached its nadir for the 25-year period at the end of 2008, hitting a deeply undervalued 61.1%. This marked a prime buying opportunity for long-term investors.

    The Long Bull Market and Rising Valuations (2009-2019): A decade-long bull market followed the 2008 crisis, driven by low interest rates and steady economic growth. During this time, the Buffett Indicator steadily climbed, surpassing the 100% mark around 2013 and continuing to ascend, indicating that stock market growth was outpacing GDP growth. By the end of 2019, the ratio stood at a historically high 153.7%.

    The COVID-19 Pandemic and Unprecedented Highs (2020-2024): The brief but sharp market downturn at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was quickly followed by a massive infusion of government stimulus and a surge in investor enthusiasm, particularly in the technology sector. This propelled the Buffett Indicator to unprecedented levels, reaching an all-time high of 214.3% at the end of 2021. After a pullback in 2022 amid inflation concerns and interest rate hikes, the indicator has since rebounded and, as of the end of 2024, stands at an elevated 204.9%, a level that historically suggests a significantly overvalued market.

    In conclusion, the 25-year journey of the Buffett Indicator showcases a market that has repeatedly cycled through periods of boom and bust. While it is not a tool for timing short-term market movements, it provides invaluable long-term perspective. The current elevated reading suggests that investors should proceed with caution, as history has shown that periods of extreme overvaluation are often followed by market corrections.


    Disclaimer: At least some of this content was created with the assistance of artificial intelligence (A.I.).  Please be sure to do your own research &/or contact your financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

    Looking for More Insight?
    ]]>    Fri, 06 Jun 2025 14:07:09 -0500    <![CDATA[The Soft Stuff Matters]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/the-soft-stuff-matters A thought on your portfolio's "total return."  (If you were told there would be no math today, I apologize in advance.) ]]>

    The Magnified Impact of Investor Sentiment

    A thought on your portfolio's "total return."  (If you were told there would be no math today, I apologize in advance.) 


    Total Return has two parts to it:  appreciation & income.  If  you view owning a stock like you are an owner of a company, you want it to be profitable and have solid cash flow.  That perspective makes it easier to focus on the yield generated in your portfolio (dividends and interest).  However, as an investment, you also consider appreciation, which can be much more speculative, or at least fickle in nature.  


    Think of something as simple as the P/E ratio, which is just another way of saying how much you're willing to pay for an investment for every dollar of a company's earnings  It's one representation of investor sentiment.  Why is this important?  Because uncertainty impacts investor sentiment in addition to the potential impact on corporate earnings.


    Consider the two investors below.  Let's assume that the S&P 500 is around 6100, and both use research that shows the estimated earnings for the S&P 500 will be $280 over the next 12 months ("forward earnings").  This puts the forward P/E at roughly 21.8.

    Photo by Icons8Team on Unsplash

    Ryan wants to manage his portfolio risk.

    Ryan is 30 years old, is a high earner, and has some additional cash that he would like to invest.  However, he is also concerned that the market is going to come down significantly for a number of reasons, so he doesn't want to invest right now.  Instead, he guesses that the forecasted earnings for the S&P will only reach $260, not $280.  Not only that, but Ryan isn't willing to pay the same amount for those earnings.  He will only invest if the forward P/E ratio reaches 20.  So because of his conservative nature, he doesn't want to invest more in stocks until the market comes down to 5200.  So even earnings estimates go down by about 7%, Ryan needs to see a drop of 14.75% before he feels comfortable and confident that he can get a reasonable return.

    Photo by Austin Distel on Unsplash

    Austin wants to be more aggressive.

    Austin is also 30 years old, is a high earner, and has some additional cash that he would like to invest.  He has some concerns about the current market, but is more optimistic than Ryan.  While he also thinks that forecasted earnings will only be $260, he is still willing to pay $21.80 for every dollar in earnings (P/E ratio of 21.8), so he plans on investing more if the market pulls back to 5668 from 6100 (a decline of 7.08%).

    Are you more like Ryan or Austin?

    There is no "right" answer.  Math can tell you what you may "need" to do given certain conditions, but are those conditions actually right for you?  This is why the "soft stuff" matters; it helps you understand your investing style when the market gets tough - because it will.  In a world where we talk about love languages & attachment styles, it is just as important to understand what works for you and how you want to move forward - financially speaking, of course.  


    Click the button to contact us and learn more about our process.

    Learn More
    ]]>    Tue, 25 Mar 2025 17:38:24 -0500    <![CDATA[Crazy Ivan!]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/crazy-ivan

    Data Signals Potential Slowing Growth

    In a post dated 4/5/24 titled "The Stubborn Soft Landing", I wrote the following: "A soft landing is - unofficially - when monetary policy makers both slow the pace of economic growth and reduce inflation without causing a recession.  So far, that appears to be the most likely scenario.  I think even a mild recession, or a "soft-ish" landing, could be understandable at this point.  One factor I have been monitoring has been the unemployment rate, which is beginning to rise slightly despite being near historic lows."  Since then, unemployment has risen from 3.8% to hover between 4.0-4.3% range for several months.  Monetary policy had appeared to do its job for a soft landing.  However, more recent fiscal policy has caused a distinct change of direction.  


    Many of you may have heard me previously describe the US economy like a submarine; it's massive, has tremendous momentum, and can change directions, but doesn't turn on a dime.  Likewise, we have received signals, like a sonar ping, that help tell a story.  These tariffs, however, seem to have caused the economy & markets to be more like a "Crazy Ivan" (a hard turn made by a submarine to check its blind spot and potentially gain a tactical advantage, made famous by The Hunt for Red October by Tom Clancy).



    Ping #1 = The Federal Reserve

    The Federal Reserve's outlook for 2025 according to the December 2024 Summary of Economic Projections called for slightly higher inflation, rising unemployment, slower GDP, and 1-2 possible rate cuts in order to support the economy.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta also created an estimate of GDP for 1Q25 through an analysis of current data.  The GDPNow estimate showed a contraction from 2.9% on January 31 to (1.5%) this week, due to reports reflecting softer consumer spending, lower consumer sentiment, & fewer capital expenditures than expected.  There is also a concern about companies front-loading their imported goods before the tariffs take effect in April in order to take advantage of lower prices.


    Ping #2 = Wall Street Revisions

    Wall Street firms are also beginning to lower their year-end targets for the S&P 500.  Within the last few days, RBC changed from 6600 to 6200 (-6%); Goldman Sachs changed from 6500 to 6200 (-4.6%); & Yardeni Research changed from 7000 to 6400 (-8.6%).  At the start of the year, firms were calling for double-digit market growth.  Just these revisions changed from an average of almost 14% down to about 6.5%.  However, they also called for a possible contraction in 1H25, although the reasons for it varied.  The catalyst for the contraction has been the tariffs/trade war, which was not necessarily expected.    When factoring in the revised targets, after a 10% correction, the math shows that these firms are calling for an average recovery of 18.4% in the second half of 2025.  It sounds that they believe the rebound would likely be sparked by the resolution of the trade war, but a clear catalyst to that sort of growth in 2H25 is undetermined at this time.

    Ping #3 = Investor Sentiment

    Your portfolio's total return has two components:  appreciation/depreciation & income.  Less confidence in the stock market usually leads to an increased focus on generating portfolio income (dividends & interest).  However, lower investor sentiment also could lead to contraction in the Price-to-Earnings ratio.  The P/E ratio basically shows how much an investor is willing to pay for an investment for every dollar in earnings that investment generates.  Given the above points, it would be logical to think that earnings would be negatively impacted, so investors wouldn't be willing to value the investment the same as they did before.  The greater the uncertainty, the more an investor would want to be compensated - which usually means a lower purchase price (i.e., market depreciation).


    So, if you have more uncertainty regarding the stock market than you did a month ago, you might want to be compensated for taking on additional risk by investing more at lower prices, depending on your personal goals, circumstances & risk tolerance.   

    American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey for the week ending 3/12/2025.




    Conclusion

    There is a lot of uncertainty presented in today's markets.  With the right plan in place, we can work together to help guide you through these times with a sound strategy that is tailored for you.  If you want help navigating all of the noise, click the button below to schedule a time to speak.

    Get Started Now
    ]]>    Tue, 18 Mar 2025 14:24:09 -0500    <![CDATA[2025 Federal Reserve Outlook]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/2025-federal-reserve-outlookThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 members:  the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the ]]>

    Walking an Economic Tightrope

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 members:  the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.  A major part of this committee's job is to review economic data & discuss their outlooks in order to establish monetary policy.  The challenge they will have in 2025 is how to balance the fight against stubborn inflation against the desire to maintain low unemployment.  Below are 4 graphs explaining their outlook, taken from the December 2024 Summary of Economic Projections.

    GDP Growth

    The FOMC projects real GDP growth to average 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024.  The committee expects growth to slow in the first half of 2025, followed by a modest pickup in the second half of the year.

    Inflation

    The FOMC forecasts the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, their preferred inflation measure, to rise to 2.5% in 2025, up from 2.4% in 2024.  The committee expects inflation to remain above its 2% target through the first half of 2025, before gradually declining.


    In addition to the FOMC analysis, we also should consider the potential o=impact of the new administration's fiscal policy regarding tariffs. On one hand, it could be argued that the positions could be used simply to establish a bargaining position.  On the other hand, if they were to be implemented as they have been described so far, they could lead to even higher inflation as either the additional cost due to tariffs would be passed on to US consumers, or because domestic producers might have higher labor costs than overseas producers.

    Unemployment

    The FOMC projects the median unemployment rate to increase to 4.3% in 2025, up from 4.2% in 2024.  The committee expects the labor market to remain strong, with a relatively low unemployment rate, from a historical perspective.

    Interest Rates

    The FOMC projects the federal funds target rate to decline to 3.9-4.0% by the end of 2025, down from 4.4-4.5% at the end of 2024.  The committee expects to manage interest rates in a data-dependent manner to combat inflation and maintain a healthy economy.


    IMPLICATION FOR MARKETS

    In summary, the FOMC data for 2025 projects slowing GDP, slightly higher inflation, rising unemployment, and potential Fed Funds cuts in order to support the economy.  However, several major banks/brokerage firms have placed targets on the S&P 500 reflecting high single-digit to low double-digit percentage growth.  Given the gap in the current fundamental valuations and current levels, coupled with the above FOMC projections, it seems logical that both could occur, but a correction may be needed to provide more attractive entry points in the short term.  Long-term investors should review their goals, timeline, & asset allocation, as well as having a thorough understanding of the risks that yo may be taking on.


    If you would like to review your strategy and understand your portfolio risk, click the button below to arrange a time to speak.

    Review Your Strategy Now
    ]]>    Fri, 24 Jan 2025 13:41:16 -0600    <![CDATA[Are We In a "Melt-Up?"]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/are-we-in-a-melt-upA closer look into a quietly emerging risk in the stock market]]>

    Understanding a Melt-Up in the Market and Its Potential Effects in 4Q24

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, investors and analysts are closely watching market movements, particularly the possibility of a "melt-up". This confusing term refers to a sharp, unexpected rise in asset prices driven primarily by investor sentiment, often unrelated to fundamental economic growth. In other words, a melt-up is characterized by euphoria in the market, with stock prices soaring as investors fear missing out (FOMO) on further gains, rather than any significant improvement in company performance or broader economic indicators.  While a melt-up can be exciting in the short term, it often signals heightened risk, and understanding its dynamics and potential consequences is critical for investors as they navigate 4Q24.

    What Exactly is A "Melt-Up?"

    A melt-up can happen when investors, worried about missing out on future profits, pile into stocks, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of rising prices. Unlike a **bull market**, which is supported by fundamental economic factors such as corporate earnings growth or macroeconomic expansion, a melt-up is often fueled by **speculative behavior** and psychological drivers.  Some common characteristics of a melt-up include:
      • Valuations exceeding fundamentals =  Stock prices surge far beyond what earnings or company fundamentals can justify.
      • FOMO-driven buying =  Investors rush into the market, driving prices higher due to fear of missing out on potential gains.
      • Volatility and market irrationality =  Rapid price movements can create instability and heighten risks of a correction.
    In previous instances, such as the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s or the more recent surge in speculative assets during the 2020–2021 pandemic recovery, melt-ups have typically been followed by sharp corrections or even full-blown market crashes.  However, despite some of the above concerns, one positive thing to note is that forward stock market earnings continue to rise.  The question remains: do current estimates justify these prices?

    Several factors appear to be creating conditions for a melt-up as we close out 2024, including monetary policy adjustments & global macroeconomic uncertainty.  The Federal Reserve has pivoted to a more dovish stance as its focus turns away from inflation toward the labor market.  This shift may have sparked optimism, pushing investors to assume that lower interest rates will keep supporting asset prices. Additionally, while inflation has cooled in some regions, economic growth remains uneven, especially in Europe and China. Investors, seeking safe havens for their capital, may turn to U.S. equities, driving prices upward.

    Potential Effects of a Melt-Up in 4Q24

    While the short-term effects of a melt-up might seem positive, with portfolios seeing substantial gains, the long-term risks and economic impacts are more complex.

    1. Market Volatility = As prices rise quickly, the risk of a sharp correction increases. History shows that melt-ups are often followed by downturns. For example, the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s led to a spectacular crash in 2000. If the market becomes overextended, any negative news—be it an earnings miss, geopolitical tension, or macroeconomic disappointment—could trigger a sell-off.
    2. Weakened Investor Confidence = If the market does correct after a melt-up, it could undermine investor confidence for a period of time, potentially leading to a prolonged bear market. Once investors realize that prices have far exceeded the fundamentals, many may exit the market, exacerbating the downturn.
    3. Potential for Sectoral Divergence = During a melt-up, certain sectors may benefit disproportionately. When the correction occurs, the most overinflated sectors may experience the steepest declines.
    4. Impact on Monetary Policy = If a melt-up occurs, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may face pressure to adjust monetary policy. On one hand, a melt-up could lead to concerns about **asset bubbles**, prompting tighter monetary conditions to curb speculative excesses. On the other hand, a sudden collapse in asset prices could push central banks to ease rates again to stabilize markets. This dynamic adds uncertainty to future monetary policy decisions.
    5. Wealth Effect and Consumer Spending = In the short term, a melt-up can fuel the **wealth effect**, where rising asset prices encourage consumers to spend more. However, this can lead to temporary surges in inflation and demand. When prices correct, the opposite could happen, with consumers pulling back on spending, leading to slower economic growth in early 2025.

    How Investors Can Navigate a Potential Melt-Up

    Given the uncertainty surrounding a melt-up, it’s important for investors to remain cautious:
    1. Diversification: Allocating investments across different asset classes, regions, and sectors can help reduce exposure to an overvalued sector or asset class.
    2. Focus on fundamentals: While speculative stocks may be tempting, focusing on companies with strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations can protect against downside risks.
    3. Prepare for volatility: It’s crucial to brace for heightened volatility. This might mean adjusting asset allocations or hedging positions to mitigate potential losses in the event of a sharp market correction.

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, the possibility of a market melt-up is real. While the allure of quick profits may drive asset prices higher in the short term, investors should be mindful of the risks that come with euphoric markets. A disciplined, diversified approach, focusing on long-term fundamentals, will be essential for navigating this turbulent period.  To get a better idea of the risk your portfolio may be taking on, schedule a call today by clicking the button below.

    Disclaimer:  
    The content provided here is at least partially generated by artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only. While I strive to ensure accuracy, the information may not always reflect the most current developments or data. It's recommended to verify any critical information from reliable sources or consult with a professional expert when making decisions based on this content.
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    ]]>    Thu, 10 Oct 2024 08:00:00 -0500    <![CDATA[Recession or Soft Landing?]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/recession-or-soft-landingConsumer spending and low unemployment have helped counter actions by the Federal Reserve.]]>

    Jackson Hole could provide some insight.

    Last year during his speech at Jackson Hole, WY, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated the following:  


    "Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring supply and demand into better balance.  Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.  Moreover, there will likely be some softening of labor market conditions.  While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will likely also bring some pain to households and businesses.  These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation.  But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain."


    What is unclear is not if the Fed feels accomplished; it's likely they do not.  Rather, the question may be how much further do they need to go?  Despite inflation's decline over the last year, it has done so without slower growth or significantly softer labor conditions.


    Growth Continues to be Strong

    This chart reflects GDPNow, an estimate of the Gross Domestic Product for the United States, managed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  The GDP estimate had slowed to be just above an annualized rate of 1.13% in 1Q23, but the estimate for 3Q23 is now roughly 5.75%, even with the reduction of the money supply (M2) and all of the interest rate increases that have occurred.

    The Labor Market is Still Tight

    The unemployment rate has been pretty stable over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  In fact, despite the four-week average of initial jobless claims moving slightly higher this year, the unemployment rate sits lower than a year ago, at 3.50%, much lower than the theoretical rate of "full employment".  Continued claims for unemployment insurance are also lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic began (1,879,000 for the week ending 1/4/2020; 1,716,000 for the week ending 8/5/2023).


    Why is this important?  A tighter labor market leads to higher wages, which likely also leads to more consumer spending.  It seems as if the full impact of the interest rate increases over the last 18 months still has to be felt.  We may be toward the end of the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle, but I would not be surprised if the Fed keeps rates higher for longer than what some believe.

    Watch Household Credit & Consumer Spending

    Consumer spending & household debt could be one measure signaling if the US could have a soft landing or a recession.  The housing market has already slowed over the past 12-18 months, as interest rates have risen and sellers (with mortgages at historically lower rates) are hesitant to upgrade with mortgage rates around multi-decade highs. Affordability is also much lower due to limited housing supply.  In addition, according to the most recent quarterly Household & Credit Report by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, two concerning points  were raised.




    • "Credit card balances saw brisk growth, rising by $45 billion to a new series high of $1.03 trillion."
    • "Credit card balances saw the most pronounced worsening in performance in 2023Q2 after a period of extraordinarily low delinquency rates during the pandemic."

    Higher delinquency rates could lead to tighter lending conditions and increased reserve requirements for lenders.  This could accelerate a slowdown in demand, as well as impact lender earnings, which could then result in lower stock prices for financial services companies.  Another point to remember:  the student loan payment moratorium ends August 31, 2023. (What do you think will happen when payments start up again in October?)

    Conclusion

    Continue to watch reports on household credit & consumer spending closely as we enter 4Q23, especially during the holiday spending season.  In my opinion, if consumers initiate a slowdown in spending (because they feel less confident in the economy), we may have a more moderate slowdown, i.e., a soft landing. Households would likely pay down debt &/or improve their respective balance sheets.  However, if lenders proactively created a somewhat tougher lending environment in order to manage risk & mitigate the increase in delinquency rates, it might induce increased market volatility and lead to a recession.  While painful in the short term, it could also create better long-term opportunities because of the more reasonable valuations.


    If you have questions about your current strategy and how you are managing risk, click the button below to schedule a call.  

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    ]]>    Wed, 23 Aug 2023 11:27:41 -0500    <![CDATA[All Things A.I.]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/All-Things-A.I.The first half of 2023 was one with strong market performance, as the S&P 500 returned 16.89%.  However, deeper analysis paints a picture tha ]]>

    A.I. related companies seem to be driving this market.

    The first half of 2023 was one with strong market performance, as the S&P 500 returned 16.89%.  However, deeper analysis paints a picture that isn't quite as rosy.  The S&P 500 is a market-capitalization weighted index.  When you look at the equal-weighted index, the return is only 5.97%.  The difference is due to the significant influence of some of the largest companies, particularly those related to artificial intelligence.  As of 6/30, seven mega-cap companies accounted for about 26% of the S&P 500 index, had an average return of 93% in 1H23, and a weighted return of 19.77%  This also means that the remaining 493 stocks (with a 74% weighting) actually had a loss of about 3.90%.  There are also some concerns about the sustainability of this market's rally.

    Valuations Seem High

    As of 6/30, the Wilshire 5000 stock index (intended to represent the entire US stock market), is 1.6 standard deviations above its long term trend.  This is a signal of being overvalued.  Also, even with earnings recovering slightly, markets seem to ignore not only the Fed's current actions, but also the likelihood that they will likely have to continue raising rates because inflation has been so stubborn, and becoming embedded in consumer prices, which has been a stated concern ("...long-term price stability.")

    In other words, if the trendline in the previous chart (in red) was translated into a baseline (dotted line in this chart), the current market's deviation is similar to the "dot.com" bubble from 1999-2000, although not quite as large as it was before the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022.

    A Turn in the Business Cycle?


    The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators have been less than its Coincident Economic Indicators for the last three months.  In other words, based on the chart to the left, not only have survey results indicated more a more pessimistic outlook within 6-12 months from that particular survey date, but for the last three months they also have indicated that the near-future business cycle will be worse than the current situation.  With the first gap being in March 2023, this indicates a potential turn in the business cycle starting in 4Q23 or 1Q24.

    Paying a Premium for More Risk?

    As of 6/30, the earnings yield on the S&P 500 was about 5.22%.  The yield on the 3-month US Treasury bill was 5.46%.  This means that investors are literally paying 0.24% to take on the risk of the stock market (instead of receiving a benefit of 4.5-5.0%).  At some point, risk management and fundamental valuations will come back into focus, but as long as the market is increasing, many are content to simply ride the wave.  This could lead to some good opportunities when the market corrects, especially if it overshoots the mark trying to correct.


    In the short term, "caveat emptor" (let the buyer beware).  To learn more about how our process could benefit your situation, click the button below.

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    ]]>    Tue, 04 Jul 2023 16:07:13 -0500