OmniDivitia Wealth Management, Inc. - ODWM Blog #labor marketsOmniDivitia Wealth Management, Inc. - ODWM Blog #labor marketshttps://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/tag/labor-marketsSun, 12 Apr 2026 16:02:23 -0700http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[5 Warning Signs]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/5-warning-signs

Wall Street Markets vs. Main Street Consumers: Who will Win?

5 Economic Warning Signs You Might Be Missing

Navigating the modern economy feels like deciphering a code, with stock market rallies often masking deeper signs of a slowdown. To understand the true direction of the economy, it's often more revealing to look beyond the daily headlines at a few key underlying indicators. The following five points, drawn from recent economic data, reveal a consistent and cautionary story about where the economy may be heading.


1. Consumer Confidence Has Fallen Off a Cliff

A major survey of consumer sentiment revealed a sharp decline in November 2025, a worrying sign for an economy driven by spending. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 6.8 points to 88.7, its lowest level since April.  A critical component of that report, the Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook for income, business, and labor conditions, has been particularly weak. This index has now tracked below the recession-signaling threshold of 80 for ten consecutive months.


"Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months." - Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board


This matters because consumer sentiment is a key driver of spending. Such deep pessimism signals that households may be preparing to pull back, posing a significant headwind for economic growth.

2. A Key Recession Predictor Is Flashing Red

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal turning points in the business cycle before they happen. In August 2025, the LEI for the US declined by 0.5% and fell by a total of 2.8% over the preceding six months.  Crucially, the report notes that this widespread weakness across its components triggered a "recession signal" in August.


“In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly decline since April 2025, signaling more headwinds ahead.” - Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board


Because this single indicator combines ten different data points—from manufacturing orders to stock prices and unemployment claims—its unified negative signal is particularly impactful.

3. America's Factories Have Room to Spare

Capacity utilization is a key measure of economic health that shows how much of the nation's industrial potential is actually being used. In August 2025, the total capacity utilization rate for the U.S. industrial sector was 77.4 percent. This rate is significant because it is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run average from 1972–2024, indicating that the country's industrial sector—comprising manufacturing, mining, and utilities—is operating with significant slack, suggesting a lack of robust demand in the economy.

4. The Job Market Shows Subtle Signs of Strain

To get a nuanced view of the labor market, it's important to distinguish between the two main types of weekly unemployment claims.

First, "initial claims" represent new applications for unemployment benefits, giving us a real-time look at the pace of recent layoffs. As of November 15, 2025, the 4-week moving average for these new claims was a relatively stable 224,250.

Second, "continued claims" represent the total number of individuals already receiving unemployment benefits. As of November 8, 2025, the 4-week moving average for continued claims was 1,960,250.  While new layoffs are not spiking, the number of people remaining on unemployment is nearly 2 million and has been rising. This divergence signals a cooling hiring environment, where finding a new job is becoming a prolonged struggle for nearly two million Americans.

5. Wall Street's Optimism Isn't Reaching Main Street

There is often a sharp contrast between financial market performance and the economic reality for average households. On November 25, 2025, the S&P 500 Index provided a dose of good news, closing at 6,765.88, up 0.91% for the day.

However, that optimism is not reflected in how most Americans feel about their finances. According to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to just 51.0 in November, a staggering 29.0% drop from the previous year.


"...consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes."

Joanne Hsu, Surveys of Consumers Director


This highlights a significant disconnect between the performance of financial markets and the persistent anxieties—driven by high prices and stagnant incomes—that define the economic reality for millions of households.

Conclusion: The Bigger Picture

While no single indicator can predict the future with certainty, the consistent pattern across consumer confidence, leading economic indexes, industrial output, and the job market points toward significant economic headwinds. The data tells a cohesive story of a slowing economy, even when the daily headlines seem contradictory. As these cautionary signals grow louder, the key question becomes not if the economy is slowing, but by how much?


For more information on how your portfolio may be affected, click the button below to schedule a call.

Schedule a Call
]]>Wed, 26 Nov 2025 14:38:41 -0600<![CDATA[Navigating the Markets & Economy Through the PEST Lens]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/navigating-the-noise-with-a-pest 1. Political Escala ]]>

A Thank You to Richard Bernstein

I recently decided to break out my copy of "Navigate the Noise" by Richard Bernstein, a book he wrote in 2001.  The first thing that struck me was the full title, and how it seems so appropriate today.  The full title is: "Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype", which 


For context, Richard Bernstein is the CEO & Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors.  He was formerly the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch, where I became familiar with his work, as he would often be heard on the daily market calls, providing insight and guidance for advisors.  What stands out in my memory is that there were some people in our office who were not his biggest fans. Perhaps it was because he wasn't always an equity market "cheerleader", as some are, or because he suggested caution in an approach rather than to "back the truck up and buy as much as you can." (That's another actual quote that I heard from a different analyst - WOW!).  However, I liked his style, and always appreciated the independent, well-thought out logic as well as how he articulated his opinion.  


With that in mind, in this era of seemingly overvalued markets and an uncertain economy, I think it could be helpful to step back, take a breath, and evaluate what is going on with a well-known framework, the PEST Analysis.  PEST stands for "Political; Economic; Social; Technological".  (Some choose to use PESTLE, adding "Legal & Environmental" as additional factors to consider.

1. Political

  • Escalating Tariff Tensions & Trade Policy Shockwaves

    The U.S. has imposed sweeping tariffs—the highest since the 1930s—averaging almost 20%, impacting imports from more than 60 countries and pressuring trade flows, inflation, and consumer costs (The Tax Foundation).

  • Temporary Relief via Trade Truce

    A fresh 90-day truce between the U.S. and China offers short-term calm, though significant diplomatic and trade hurdles remain unresolved (AP News).

  • Federal Reserve Policy Amid Uncertainty

    Amid persistent inflation and slowing growth, Kansas City Fed President Schmid supports holding rates steady around 4.25–4.50%, calling the policy “modestly restrictive” (Reuters). In contrast, economist Jeremy Siegel argues that a rate cut is “inevitable,” forecasting up to a 50-basis-point cut in September and further easing into 2026 (MarketWatch).

2. Economic

  • Mixed Growth Signals
    The U.S. economy rebounded in Q2 2025 with annualized GDP growth of +3.0%, after a Q1 contraction of –0.5% (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gallagher).

  • Global Growth Outlook—Tempered but Steady
    The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.0% for 2025, buoyed by pre-tariff spending and easing effective U.S. tariffs. Still, downside risks remain high (Reuters). The OECD paints a bleaker picture, warning of the weakest global expansion since the pandemic, citing trade barriers and policy uncertainty as key drags (Financial Times).

  • Inflation Pressures Persist
    U.S. headline CPI held at 2.7% while core CPI rose to 3.1%—indicating stickier inflation driven in part by tariffs (New York Post, The Guardian). The re-emergence of stagflation—a troubling combo of slowed growth and high inflation—is increasingly discussed by economists (Financial Times).

3. Social

  • Softening Labor Market & Job Data Shifts
    Job growth slowed markedly—July added just 73,000 jobs, the weakest performance since the COVID-19 downturn. Revisions also showed May and June estimates were overstated by 258,000 jobs collectively (The Times of India).

  • Shifting Investor Sentiment
    Markets are rapidly digesting inflation trends, Fed signals, and tariff impacts. Record highs in some indices reflect optimism, but stagflation concerns are sowing caution (Business Insider, The Times).

  • Skepticism in Real Estate Investments
    Ray Dalio calls real estate a risky bet in the current environment—pointing to its rate sensitivity, tax burden, and illiquidity—and recommends hedging via gold or Bitcoin instead (Business Insider).

4. Technological

  • Market Preferences Favoring Tech & AI
    Technology and AI-related sectors continue to outperform, reflecting investors’ preference for scalable, less tariff-sensitive businesses (Quotient Wealth, Schroders).

  • AI as a Growth Engine
    AI and cloud services delivered strong earnings from major firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, reinforcing optimism about AI’s long-term profitability (Schroders).

  • Supply Chain Resilience & Reconfiguration
    Global supply chains are recalibrating amid layered crises—geopolitical fragmentation, pandemic remnants, and Russia-Ukraine fallout. While China remains deeply embedded upstream, importers are increasingly diversifying toward ASEAN partners (arXiv).


Summary Table: PEST Snapshot

PEST FactorKey Developments
PoliticalTariff turbulence; Temporary U.S.–China truce; Diverging Fed outlook
EconomicU.S. GDP rebounds; Inflation resilient; Global growth modest
SocialLabor market cooling; Real estate skepticism; Market sentiment mixed
TechnologicalTech/AI outperforming; Supply chain realignment in progress


Concluding Thoughts

The emerging economic narrative for mid-2025 is one of fragile resilience amid growing uncertainty. Markets are balancing optimism—rooted in tech gains and a potential Fed pivot—with geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and softening fundamentals. A rate cut could provide relief, but reliance on policy lightening is fraught amid stagflation fears.  From a PEST standpoint, navigating this period requires vigilance across domains: watch tariff developments, inflation and labor indicators, investor confidence shifts, and the adaptive power of tech and supply chains.


For a more in depth opinion on what this may mean for your plan and portfolio, click the button below to schedule a call.

Disclaimer: This content has been generated with AI assistance and is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered professional, legal, or financial advice. Please consult a qualified expert for specific guidance.

Schedule a Call Today
]]>Tue, 12 Aug 2025 13:50:10 -0500<![CDATA[After the Anniversary]]>https://www.omnidivitia.com/blogs/post/After-the-Anniversary

We recently passed the five-year anniversary of the market's trough due to the financial crisis. On March 9, 2009, the Dow Jones closed at 6507.04; the S&P 500 closed at 676.53; and the Nasdaq closed at 1268.64. On March 10, 2014, the Dow closed at 16,418.68; the S&P 500 closed at 1877.17; and the Nasdaq closed at 4334.45. These respective gains are all quite impressive over that time frame. However, if we go back to the 2007 peaks of the each benchmark (around October 9-10), we get a very different picture. The annualized returns (through March 10, 2014) since then are 2.30%, 2.84%, and 6.76% respectively.


Based on some recent conversations I've had, I thought it may help to expound on why I am (along with many others) cautiously optimistic about the US stock markets.


Labor Markets


As of their February 2014 report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows a year-over-year decline in the unemployment rate from 7.7% to 6.7%, which reflects about 1.6 million people back in the workforce. The headline numbers have clearly improved, though at a sluggish pace.  There are concerns, however, when you delve into the report for details.

  • 10.5 million Americans counted as unemployed;
  • 7.2 million people employed part-time for economic reasons ("involuntary part-time workers");
  • 2.3 million people "marginally attached to the labor force", meaning that they were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work over the four weeks prior to the survey for this report.  Roughly 1/3 of this group is considered "discouraged" as they are neither looking for work nor do they believe jobs exist for them.
  • If we include the unemployed, underemployed, and those not being counted, we would be discussing 12.8% of the labor force, not 6.7%.  As this employment picture slowly improves, it could mean that there is a possible modest tailwind for the economy until these figures become historically normalized.
Consumption - Is the trend my friend?

Average hourly earnings have improved 1.9% over the previous year according to the BLS, which is good news for those who are working.  Consumers have also spent more, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), especially on durable goods.  Corporations have certainly benefited from these trends, especially as banks have begun to loosen their requirements (slightly).  However, durable goods, by definition, do not require replacement as often, and the trend also shows that the cyclical peaks have not been as high as their predecessors recently.  In short, the recovery has allowed those who were financially secure to spend more of their discretionary income.  As additional jobs are created, more people will have increased confidence in their financial position, and we'll see consumption and sentiment improve.  without additional wage-earners and higher wages, I don't believe the pace of consumption will have enough steam to accelerate the recovery.

Corporations Sitting on Cash

During this recovery, corporations have used cash for share buybacks, enhancing dividends, or for mergers & acquisitions rather than hiring people back at a faster rate.  The reasons for this range from the lack of visibility regarding corporate taxes to sluggish consumer demand.  In 2013 alone, revenue growth for the member companies of the S&P 500 was approximately 2.24%, but operating earnings are estimated to have grown more than 9% (mostly due to the effect of cost cutting over the last few years).  We're all waiting for top line growth, but this is truly a "chicken and egg" scenario.  Companies won't hire until there is greater consumer demand; consumers demand won't increase until wages begin to increase.  Wages won't increase until companies hire and the labor market tightens.


Janet Yellen & the Federal Reserve


The pace of the Fed's economic support reduction ("tapering") is critical moving forward.  In my opinion, while the unemployment rate is approaching their stated target, the degree of slack in the labor markets and lack of any inflationary concerns indicate that tapering will occur at a measured pace pending signs of economic acceleration.  Their actions will most likely become more swayed by qualitative information than quantitative.   As I write this, the Fed is scheduled to conclude their meeting this afternoon, and make an announcement afterwards.  More to come on this at a later date.


In Conclusion...


We've been in this environment for some time, and while it may not be exciting, the economy is improving, and stock markets have had a remarkable recovery.  Change, however, is the only constant.  Revisit your portfolio to evaluate the types of risks to which you may be most exposed.  Determine a course of action for when the environment shifts, but enjoy the ride in the meantime.

Contact us today to learn more about how Locker Wealth Management can help you save, invest, manage, and transfer your wealth in a time-friendly and tax-friendly way.

Disclosures:   The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.  TheStandard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy throughchanges in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all majorindustries.  The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in this article may not develop as predicted.


]]>Mon, 24 Mar 2014 15:48:46 -0500